Análisis de la Probabilidad de las Firmas Colombianas para Importar Productos entre 1995 y 2017

Jorge García-García, Enrique Montes-Uribe, Juan Sebastián Silva-Rodríguez and Hector Zarate-Solano

Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica de Colombia

Abstract: This document describes and calculates the probability of importing products in Colombia based on various characteristics of the importing market during the period 1995–2017. The estimates are derived from a nonlinear econometric zero-inflated Poisson model that relates the frequency of importing to its determinants. Subsequently, it analyzes how the probabilities of importing changed in response to key variables in the importing market. The main findings reveal that a small group of importers had the highest likelihood of importing in a market characterized by high concentration and increasing protection. Moreover, the analysis highlights that non-tariff measures and market concentration levels were the most significant factors influencing the probability of importing in Colombia. **** RESUMEN: En este artículo, se calcula y describe la probabilidad de importar productos de acuerdo con algunas características del mercado importador en Colombia durante el periodo de 1995 a 2017. Las estimaciones se basan en un modelo econométrico no lineal de tipo Poisson con exceso de ceros que relaciona la frecuencia de importar con sus determinantes. Posteriormente, se analiza cómo cambian las probabilidades de importar con respecto a variables clave del mercado importador. Los principales hallazgos indican que un grupo reducido de importadores enfrentaron las mayores probabilidades de importar, en un mercado altamente concentrado y cada vez más protegido. Asimismo, las variables más relevantes para entender la probabilidad de importar en Colombia fueron las medidas no arancelarias y el nivel de concentración del mercado.

Keywords: importaciones; medidas no arancelarias; probabilidad; modelo Poisson; imports; non-tariff measures; probability; Poisson model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 F13 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46
Date: 2024-12
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https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1291

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