Monitoreo del ciclo del mercado de la vivienda en Colombia: un enfoque de factores dinámicos

Nicol Valeria Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Sebastián Quintero-Uribe and Johanna Barbosa-Buitrago

Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica de Colombia

Abstract: El mercado de la vivienda mantiene estrechos vinculos con el bienestar de los hogares, la actividad económica, el mercado laboral y el sistema financiero. Este documento construye una herramienta oportuna y comprensiva para el análisis del sector, denominada Indicador del Estado del Mercado de la Vivienda (IEMV). Este es un índice sintético mensual que caracteriza el ciclo real del mercado de vivienda en Colombia, en términos de cantidades, entre 2004 y principios de 2026. El IEMV se estima mediante un modelo de factores dinámicos, utilizando 30 indicadores de oferta y demanda transformados a su componente cíclico. Los resultados muestran que el indicador captura los principales episodios de auge y ajuste del sector, identifica tres ciclos con duraciones promedio entre seis y siete años y presenta correlaciones significativas con los precios de vivienda y la actividad económica agregada, lo que respalda su utilidad como indicador coincidente y potencialmente líder para el comportamiento del sector. *** ABSTRACT: The housing market is closely related to household welfare, economic activity, the labor market, and the financial system. This paper develops a timely and comprehensive tool to monitor the sector: the Housing Market Conditions Indicator (IEMV, for its spanish acronym). The IEMV is a monthly index that characterizes the real housing cycle, in terms of quantities, in Colombia between 2004 and early 2026. The indicator is estimated using a dynamic factor model (DFM), drawing on 30 supply and demand variables, each transformed to its cyclical component. The results show that the IEMV captures major sector booms and adjustments. Furthermore, it identifies three distinct cycles with average durations of six to seven years. The indicator also exhibits significant correlations with the housing prices and the aggregate economic activity. These findings support its utility as both a coincident and a potentially leading indicator of the sector's performance.

Keywords: mercado de vivienda; Ciclo; MFD; Análisis sectorial; Colombia; housing market; Cycle; DFM; Sectorial analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C38 E32 O54 R21 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30
Date: 2026-07
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdr:borrec:1359

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