Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Changes on Economic Growth in Emerging Economies

Elkin Navas-Diago and Jorge Quintero-Otero

Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica de Colombia

Abstract: This study examines the short- and long-run effects of oil price increases and decreases on economic growth in 31 emerging economies, distinguishing between oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, through a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The results show that an increase (decrease) in oil prices has a positive (negative) effect on exporting economies and a negative (positive) effect on importing economies. In the long run, oil price changes generate asymmetric effects on economic growth in emerging oil-importing countries, with price increases exerting a stronger impact than price declines. In contrast, among oil-exporting economies, the growth response is symmetric to both increases and decreases in crude oil prices. In the short run, however, there is no evidence of asymmetry, since oil price increases and decreases affect economic growth with similar magnitudes in both importing and exporting countries. Finally, the findings indicate that structural factors, such as the monetary policy framework and the degree of oil dependence, significantly shape the magnitude of these effects, constituting an additional source of asymmetry in the relationship between oil prices and economic growth across the countries analyzed *** RESUMEN: This study examines the short- and long-run effects of oil price increases and decreases on economic growth in 31 emerging economies, distinguishing between oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, through a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The results show that an increase (decrease) in oil prices has a positive (negative) effect on exporting economies and a negative (positive) effect on importing economies. In the long run, oil price changes generate asymmetric effects on economic growth in emerging oil-importing countries, with price increases exerting a stronger impact than price declines. In contrast, among oil-exporting economies, the growth response is symmetric to both increases and decreases in crude oil prices. In the short run, however, there is no evidence of asymmetry, since oil price increases and decreases affect economic growth with similar magnitudes in both importing and exporting countries. Finally, the findings indicate that structural factors, such as the monetary policy framework and the degree of oil dependence, significantly shape the magnitude of these effects, constituting an additional source of asymmetry in the relationship between oil prices and economic growth across the countries analyzed

Keywords: Efectos asimétricos en series de tiempo; Crecimiento económico; Economías emergentes abiertas; Política monetaria; Precio del Petróleo; Asymmetric effects on time series; Economic growth; Open emerging economies; Monetary policy; Oil Price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E52 F41 O47 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2026-09
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