Seasonal Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 U.S. Cities

Roger Peng, Francesca Dominici, Roberto Pastor-Barriuso, Scott Zeger and Jonathan Samet
Additional contact information
Roger Peng: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics
Francesca Dominici: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics
Roberto Pastor-Barriuso: Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Escuela Nacional de Sanidad
Scott Zeger: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics
Jonathan Samet: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology

No 1041, Johns Hopkins University Dept. of Biostatistics Working Paper Series from Berkeley Electronic Press

Abstract: Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database for the period 1987--2000, which includes data for 100 U.S. cities. At the national level, a 10 micro-gram/m3 increase in PM(10) at lag 1 is associated with a 0.15 (95% posterior interval: -0.08, 0.39),0.14 (-0.14, 0.42), 0.36 (0.11, 0.61), and 0.14 (-0.06, 0.34) percent increase in mortality for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. An analysis by geographical regions finds a strong seasonal pattern in the northeast (with a peak in summer) and little seasonal variation in the southern regions of the country. These results provide useful information for understanding particle toxicity and guiding future analyses of particle constituent data.

Keywords: MeSH headings; Air pollution; Epidemiology; Models/Statistical; Mortality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-07-11
Note: oai:bepress.com:jhubiostat-1041
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1041&context=jhubiostat (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bep:jhubio:1041

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Johns Hopkins University Dept. of Biostatistics Working Paper Series from Berkeley Electronic Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().