Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria
Andrea Bastianin (),
Marzio Galeotti () and
Matteo Manera ()
No unimi-1109, UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics from Universitá degli Studi di Milano
Accurate forecasts of incoming calls are crucial to optimal staffing decisions in call centers. This paper evaluates a wide range of models and forecast combination techniques by means of statistical and economic criteria. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. In particular, the statistical evaluation of competing models is carried out by using a flexible loss function as input to pairwise and joint forecast diagnostic checks. Informative rankings across alternative single models and different groups of models are obtained. Moreover, models are evaluated from the perspective of a manager, who needs reliable forecasts to dimension the call center. Money metrics of forecasting performance are computed, which are based on the economic value of information and the certainty equivalent.
Keywords: Combining forecasts; Decision making; Loss function; Seasonality; Telecommunications forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers (2016)
Working Paper: Forecast evaluation in call centers: combined forecasts, flexible loss functions and economic criteria (2011)
Working Paper: Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bep:unimip:unimi-1109
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics from Universitá degli Studi di Milano Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().