Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-time Application to COVID-19

Victor Couture (), Jonathan Dingel, Allison Green, Jessie Handbury and Kevin Williams ()
Additional contact information
Victor Couture: University of California, Berkeley
Allison Green: Princeton University
Kevin Williams: Yale School of Management; Yale University - Cowles Foundation

No 2021-11, Working Papers from Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics

Abstract: We argue the revenue potential from increasing tax rates on capital gains may be substantially greater than previously understood. First, many prior studies focus primarily on short-run taxpayer responses, and so miss revenue from gains that are deferred when rates change. Second, the composition of capital gains has shifted in recent years, such that the share of gains that are highly elastic to the tax rate has likely declined. Third, focusing on capital gains tax collection may understate fiscal spillovers from decreasing the preferential tax treatment for capital gains. Fourth, additional base-broadening reforms, like eliminating stepped-up basis and making charitable giving a realization event, will decrease the elasticity of the tax base to rate changes. Overall, we do not think the prevailing assumption of many in the scorekeeping community—that raising rates to top ordinary income levels would raise little revenue—is warranted. A crude calculation illustrates that raising capital gains rates to ordinary income levels could raise $1 trillion more revenue over a decade than other estimates suggest. Given the magnitudes at stake, scorekeeping procedures employed in evaluating capital gains should be made more transparent and be the subject of external professional debate and review.

JEL-codes: C8 R1 R4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 pages
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pay and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_2021-11.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-time Application to COVID-19 (2020)
Working Paper: Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application to COVID-19 (2020)
Working Paper: Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application to COVID-19 (2020)
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