Diversionary Escalation: Theory and Evidence from Eastern Ukraine

Natalie Ayers (), Christopher Blair (), Joseph Ruggiero (), Austin Wright () and Konstantin Sonin ()
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Natalie Ayers: Harvard University
Christopher Blair: Princeton University
Joseph Ruggiero: University of Virginia
Austin Wright: University of Chicago
Konstantin Sonin: University of Chicago

No 2026-21, Working Papers from Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics

Abstract: When leaders face threats to their authority, escalating foreign conflict can help divert public attention away from domestic grievances. We develop a formal microfoundation for diversionary escalation rooted in a theory of regime change. Although the idea of diversionary escalation is classic, systematic quantitative evidence has been challenging to obtain. Using a new data set of 1.8 million conflict incidents, obtained from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine in 2015–2022, we find evidence that the Russian government strategically employed proxy-initiated separatist violence in Eastern Ukraine to divert attention from domestic unrest and opposition-led protest. We also find a positive link between opposition protest and inflammatory anti-Ukrainian coverage in the Russian media, complementary to battlefield escalation.

Pages: 90 pages
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-21

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