Class Mobility in the Era of Rising Inequality: A Synthetic Dynasty Analysis

Geoffrey Wodtke (), Weiqi Wang (), Kristina Butaeva () and Steven N. Durlauf ()
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Geoffrey Wodtke: University of Chicago Department of Sociology Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility
Weiqi Wang: University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility
Kristina Butaeva: University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility
Steven N. Durlauf: Harris School of Public Policy Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility and NBER

No 2026-25, Working Papers from Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics

Abstract: This paper studies contemporary trends in class mobility using a new approach based on the “synthetic dynasties†represented in Markov chains. This approach yields several novel measures of movement and memory, which respectively capture how class positions differ from one generation to the next and how the influence of class origins dissipates across generations. Applying these methods to data from the U.S., we find that overall levels of movement and memory have remained largely stable across cohorts born between 1945 and 1990. This stability, however, masks offsetting class-specific trends. Among those from the upper and lower classes, movement has declined and memory has increased. In contrast, among the middle classes, movement has risen and memory has weakened.

JEL-codes: D30 H0 J01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 127 pages
Date: 2026
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