Measuring Households' Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area: The Effect of Panel Conditioning

Erwan Gautier and Jérémi Montornès

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: This paper documents how inflation expectations as reported by households in the European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey vary with the tenure of survey respondents. Inflation expectations are significantly lower after some months of repeated participation in the survey, by about 2 percentage points after one year. Panel conditioning effects are much stronger if households are initially less attentive to inflation. We also document that these negative effects could be partly due to survey fatigue increasing with tenure. Finally, we find that the panel conditioning effects are not specific to inflation: they are also strong for other macroeconomic variables such as unemployment but they are not significant for households' perceptions of their own consumption or income growth.

Keywords: Consumer Expectations Survey; Inflation; Survey Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 D84 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.banque-france.fr/system/files/2025-09/WP1007.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:1007

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working papers from Banque de France Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael brassart ().