Austria One Century Apart: Persistent Effects of Hyperinflation on Inflation Expectations

Antoine Camous and Natalia Garcia Soto

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: Can the memory of past inflation shape how people form expectations about prices today? Using regional inflation data from Austria’s 1921–22 hyperinflation linked to quarterly consumer surveys (May 2020–Oct 2024), we document a persistent association between historical inflation exposure and contemporary inflation expectations: individuals from regions more exposed to the historical hyperinflation episode report higher inflation expectations, a century later. We further show that regional newspapers in historically high-inflation areas devote greater attention to inflation, suggesting that local media environments contribute to the intergenerational transmission of inflation attitudes. These findings indicate that the collective memory of major inflation episodes can durably shape expectation formation, with implications for managing heterogeneous regional responses during inflationary episodes.

Keywords: Inflation; Inflation Expectations; Long-Term Persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D14 E31 E71 G41 N14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:1050

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