Interactions between Business Cycles, stock Market Cycles and Interest Rates: the Stylised Facts

Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi and Julien Matheron

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: In this paper, we study the co-movements between stock market indices and real economic activity over the business cycle in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, using two complementary approaches in our analysis. First, we identify the turning points in real economy indicators and stock market indices and determine the extent to which these series co-move. Second, we calculate the correlations between the cyclical components of real economy indicators and excess returns, on the one hand, and the correlations between the structural components and these indicators, on the other. We then analyse the co-movements between three-month interest rates and the cyclical and structural components of the real economy and stock market indices.

Keywords: Stock returns; Comovements; Turning points; Spectral analysis. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2005
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts (2003)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:121

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