L volution des cr dits l habitat en France: une grille d analyse en termes de cycles

R. Kierzenkowski and V. Oung

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: This article puts forward a framework based primarily on probabilistic tools to analyse the nature of housing loan cycles in France. The continued high growth rate of housing loans may indeed raise concerns as to the duration and determinants of the cycle which currently prevails. The results obtained suggest that the current cycle is actually exceptional in many respects. One the one hand, it is the longest housing loans cycle observed over the last thirty years, while its occurrence appears to be structurally decoupled with several indicators of the real economy. On the other hand, this cycle may also be related to the existence of an excess supply regime, which could prove an important explanatory factor of a decoupling with the real economy.

Keywords: Credit cycle; Band-pass filters; Markov Switching, Disequilibrium. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E44 E51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:172

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