How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro's creation?

M. Bussi re, Alexander Chudik and Arnaud Mehl
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Matthieu Bussière

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: This paper uncovers the response pattern to global shocks of euro area countries' real effective exchange rates before and after the start of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), a largely open ended question when the euro was created. We apply to that end a newly developed methodology based on high dimensional VAR theory. This approach features a dominant unit to a large set of over 60 countries' real effective exchange rates and is based on the comparison of two estimated systems: one before and one after EMU. We find strong evidence that the pattern of responses depends crucially on the nature of global shocks. In particular, post-EMU responses to global US dollar shocks have become similar to Germany's response before EMU, i.e. to that of the economy that used to issue Europe's most credible legacy currency. By contrast, post-EMU responses of euro area countries to global risk aversion shocks have become similar to those of Italy, Portugal or Spain before EMU, i.e. of economies of the euro area's periphery. Our findings also suggest that the divergence in external competitiveness among euro area countries over the last decade, which is at the core of today's debate on the future of the euro area, is more likely due to country-specific shocks than to global shocks.

Keywords: Euro; Real Effective Exchange Rates; Weak and Strong Cross Sectional Dependence; High-Dimensional VAR; Identification of Shocks. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 C23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mon and nep-opm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Journal Article: How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro’s creation? (2013)
Working Paper: How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual Euro area countries since the Euro's creation? (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:336

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