Credit Ratings and Debt Crises

M. Bussi re and Annukka Ristiniemi
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Matthieu Bussière

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: This paper analyses the role of credit rating agencies in sovereign debt crises. Using a panel of 53 emerging and developing countries with annual data going back to 1977, the paper shows that credit ratings are not very good predictors of debt distress events once tested against a simple benchmark model with standard macroeconomic variables. Next, the paper turns to higher frequency data for a subset of countries to analyze the link between credit ratings and bond spreads. The results indicate that bond spreads react strongly to credit ratings, especially to downgrades in the non-investment grade category. The results are robust to a variety of additional tests.

Keywords: Credit rating agencies; debt crises; fiscal policy; emerging market economies; developing countries; panel estimation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 C35 E60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-opm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:396

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