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An Early Warning System for Macro-prudential Policy in France

Virginie Coudert () and Julien Idier

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: We construct an early warning system for detecting banking crises that could be used for the macroprudential policy conduct in France. First, we select macro-financial risk indicators among a large number of candidates by considering their performances both over a panel of ten euro area countries and at the French level, for the 1985:Q1 to 2009:Q4. Second, we run all the logit models including four of these indicators, one being necessarily a measure of credit gap to fit the Basel Committee recommendations. We then retain two sets of models: one including those with all coefficients significant and expected signs, another one, obtained by relaxing these criteria. Third, we aggregate the probabilities estimated by the models, by giving each a weight proportional to its usefulness at predicting crises either at the panel or the country-level. The simulations performed both over and out of the sample show that aggregating more models yields better results than relying on one single model or only a few. Performance is also enhanced by aggregating models’ results with country-specific weights relatively to common panel-weightings.

Keywords: Macroprudential policy; Banking Crises; Early Warning Indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 G12 C58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-rmg
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:609

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