Information Frictions Across Various Types of Inflation Expectations

Camille Cornand and Paul Hubert

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: Understanding how the degree of information frictions varies among economic agents is of utmost importance for macroeconomic dynamics. We document and compare the frequency of forecast revisions and cross-sectional disagreement in inflation expectations among five categories of agents: households, firms, professional forecasters, policymakers and participants to laboratory experiments. First, we provide evidence of a heterogeneous frequency of forecast revisions across categories of agents, with policymakers revising more frequently their forecasts than firms and professional forecasters. Households revise less frequently. Second, all categories exhibit cross-sectional disagreement. There is however a strong heterogeneity: while policymakers and professional forecasters exhibit low disagreement, firms and households show strong disagreement. Our analysis suggests that the nature of information frictions is closer to noisy information model features. We also explore the external validity of experimental expectations.

Keywords: Disagreement; Forecast Revisions; Experimental Forecasts; Survey Forecasts; Central Bank Forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 E5 E7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-dem, nep-exp, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/defaul ... /documents/wp873.pdf

Related works:
Journal Article: Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:873

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working papers from Banque de France Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Michael brassart ().