How Can Technology Significantly Contribute to Climate Change Mitigation?

Claire Alestra, Gilbert Cette, Valérie Chouard and Rémy Lecat

Working papers from Banque de France

Abstract: This paper highlights how technology can contribute to reaching the COP21 goals of net zero CO2 emissions and global warming below 2 C at the end of the century. It uses the ACCL model, particularly adapted to quantify the consequences of energy price shocks and technology improvements on CO2 emissions, temperature changes, climate damage and GDP. Our simulations show that without climate policies, i.e. a business as usual scenario, the warming may be +4 to +5 C in 2100, with considerable climate damage. We also find that an acceleration in usual technical progress - not targeted at reducing greenhouse gas intensity - makes global warming and climate damage worse than the business as usual scenario. According to our estimates, the world does not achieve climate goals in 2100 without technological changes to avoid CO2 emissions. To hit such climatic targets, intervening only through the relative price of different energy types, e.g. via a carbon tax, requires challenging hypotheses of international coordination and price increase for polluting energies. We assess a multi-lever climate strategy, associating diverse price and technology measures. This mix combines energy efficiency gains, carbon sequestration, and a decrease of 3% per year in the relative price of non-carbon-emitting electricity with a 1 to 1.5% annual rise in the relative price of our four polluting energy sources (corresponding to a relatively low but achievable carbon tax scenario). None of these components alone is sufficient to reach climate objectives. Our last and most important finding is that our composite scenario achieves the climate goals.

Keywords: : Climate; Global Warming; Technology; Environmental Policy; Growth; Long-Term Projections; Uncertainties; Renewable Energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E23 E37 H23 O11 O47 O57 Q43 Q48 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: How can technology significantly contribute to climate change mitigation? (2024)
Working Paper: How can technology significantly contribute to climate change mitigation? (2024)
Working Paper: How can technology significantly contribute to climate change mitigation? (2023)
Working Paper: How can technology significantly contribute to climate change mitigation? (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:909

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