Predicting financial crises: a balancing act

Prédire les crises financières: un exercice d’équilibriste

Julien Idier and Virginie Coudert

Eco Notepad from Banque de France

Abstract: Were it easy to predict financial crises, it would be just as easy for the macroprudential authorities to prevent them. The statistical methods used for forecasting financial crises are greatly improving but have to contend with the fact that such events are (fortunately) rare and occur suddenly. In this article, we discuss the usefulness of early warning systems as well as their limitations on the grounds that the financial system is constantly evolving.

Si prédire les crises financières était aisé, les éviter le serait tout autant pour les autorités macroprudentielles. Les méthodes statistiques de prévision des crises financières se perfectionnent mais se heurtent à la difficulté que ces dernières restent des événements rares (fort heureusement) et soudains. Nous exposons ici l’intérêt des "systèmes d’alerte avancée" tout en montrant les limites dues au fait que le système financier est en constante mutation.

Date: 2018-03-28
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