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Democratic Tipping Points

Antonio Ciccone

No 1026, Working Papers from Barcelona Graduate School of Economics

Abstract: I examine whether transitory events can tip the scales against authoritarian regimes and lead to persistent democratization. I think of situations where this is a possibility as democratic tipping points. The transitory events I focus on are rainfall shocks in the most agricultural countries in the world. I show that while these shocks only affect agricultural output contemporaneously, they have persistent effects on political institutions. Authoritarian regimes experiencing negative rainfall shocks are more likely to be democratic three, five, and ten years later.

Keywords: transitory events; persistent democratization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E02 O1 Q1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pol
Date: 2018-03
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Related works:
Working Paper: Democratic Tipping Points (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Democratic Tipping Points (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Democratic Tipping Points (2018) Downloads
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