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Partisan Abortions

Libertad Gonzalez, Luis Guirola and Blanca Zapater

No 1385, Working Papers from Barcelona School of Economics

Abstract: We study the effect of unexpected changes in the party in government on fertility outcomes, using administrative data on births and abortions for Spain. Following a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that, after an unanticipated loss by the party in power in 2004, municipalities with strong support for this party experienced a sharp increase in abortions (of about 0.10 pregnancy interruptions per 1,000 women in the month following the election), as well as a decrease in pregnancies leading to live birth (of about 0.28 conceptions per 1,000 women, for an average monthly birth rate of 3.9). We show that the surprise election results also had an immediate effect on citizens’ economic expectations along partisan lines, a plausible channel for the impact on fertility decisions.

Keywords: fertility; economic expectations; abortion; partisanship (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-eur and nep-pol
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