​​Does Repeated Cross-section Data Help Explain Consumer Inflation Expectations Revisions?

Harold Glenn Valera, Cymon Kayle Lubangco and Mark Holmes
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Harold Glenn Valera: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

No 202514, BSP Discussion Paper Series from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Abstract: We propose a new measure of revisions to consumer inflation expectations using repeated cross-sections rather than requiring panel data. We calculate the value of group average expectations in a prior period as a proxy for what an individual’s expectations might have been using micro data in the Philippines for Q1 2010 to Q2 2024. In contrast to existing mixed evidence, the resulting revisions show sensitivity to price changes in 14 food and energy goods. The equivalence testing finds that the group-based coefficients are valid, as they are: (a) different from an overall sample average-based revision results with Philippine data and (b) similar to rotating panel-based revision results using data from the Michigan Survey of US households. Using Philippine data, we also provide new evidence of significant effects of a firm’s frequency of price changes on expectation revisions.

JEL-codes: C53 D31 D84 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2025-12
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Published as BSP Discussion paper No. 2025-14, December 2025

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