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Inflation at risk from Covid-19

Ryan Banerjee, Aaron Mehrotra and Fabrizio Zampolli ()

No 28, BIS Bulletins from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: The pandemic has increased downside tail risks in advanced economies (AEs), while it has increased both downside and upside tail risks in emerging market economies (EMEs). The collapse in output and oil prices, on balance, increases downside inflation risks. Recent exchange rate depreciations increase upside risks to inflation in EMEs. Tighter financial conditions raise both downside and upside risks. In AEs, the increase in downside risks is more prominent.

Pages: 9 pages
Date: 2020-07-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-rmg
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