What comes next? Recovery from an uneven recession

Daniel Rees

No 33, BIS Bulletins from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: The effects of the Covid crisis have been felt unevenly across sectors, and the output of customer service industries could remain well below its pre-Covid trend for some time. Economies with large customer service industries could grow more slowly in the near term, even after accounting for the stringency of containment measures and the severity of virus outbreaks. Model projections suggest that large advanced economies could face a "98% economy" until constraints on customer service industries ease. The outlook for some economies, such as China, is more positive. While demand stimulus remains necessary in the near term, it will not be sufficient to return economic activity to its pre-Covid trend. That will require public health measures to control the spread of the virus and steps to ease resource reallocation to industries less affected by the pandemic.

Pages: 9 pages
Date: 2020-12-02
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