The macroeconomic spillover effects of the pandemic on the global economy

Emanuel Kohlscheen, Benoit Mojon and Daniel Rees

No 4, BIS Bulletins from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: Given the historical persistence of economic activity, the reduction of GDP due to confinement measures is likely to drag on over several quarters. The total GDP shortfall could be as much as twice that implied by the direct initial effects of confinement. This persistence reflects in part two types of spillovers across countries. One is due to the risk that uncoordinated confinements lead to repeated virus outbreaks and confinements across the globe. Another is the more traditional trade and financial integration interlinkages. Economic spillovers and spillbacks across the major economic blocs are large. There is no immunity from the economic effects if the epidemic is controlled in only one or two regions. Countries should adopt confinement, border control and macroeconomic policies that internalise these global considerations.

Pages: 9 pages
Date: 2020-04-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (37)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull04.pdf Full PDF document (application/pdf)
https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull04.htm (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bis:bisblt:4

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in BIS Bulletins from Bank for International Settlements Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Martin Fessler ().