China's socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model

Xiao-Chen Yuan, Xun Sun, Upmanu Lall, Zhifu Mi, Jun He and Yi-Ming Wei

No 107, CEEP-BIT Working Papers from Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology

Abstract: China has a large economic and demographic exposure to extreme events that is increasing rapidly due to its fast development, and climate change may further aggravate the situation. This paper investigates China's socioeconomic risk from extreme events under climate change over the next few decades with a focus on sub-national heterogeneity. The empirical relationships between socioeconomic damages and their determinants are identified using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, and are used to estimate future damages as well as associated uncertainty bounds given specified climate and development scenarios. Considering projected changes in exposure we find that the southwest and central regions and Hainan Island of China are likely to have a larger percentage of population at risk, while most of the southwest and central regions could generally have higher economic losses. Finally, the analysis suggests that increasing income can significantly decrease the number of people affected by extremes.

Keywords: socioeconomic risk; hierarchical Bayesian; natural disasters; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q40 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2017-04-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-env and nep-tra
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Journal Article: China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model (2016)
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