Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model

Bing Wang, Xiao-Jie Liang, Hao Zhang, Lu Wang and Yi-Ming Wei

No 33, CEEP-BIT Working Papers from Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology

Abstract: This paper analyzes the long-term relationships between hydropower generation and climate factors (precipitation), hydropower generation capacity (installed capacity of hydropower station) to quantify the vulnerability of renewable energy production in China for the case of hydropower generation. Furthermore, this study applies Grey Forecasting Model to forecast precipitation in different provinces, and then sets up different scenarios for precipitation based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios and results from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate projections for Impacts Studies) model. The most important result found in this research is the increasing hydropower vulnerability of the poorest regions and the main hydropower generation provinces of China to climate change. Other main empirical results reveal that the impacts of climate change on the supply of hydropower generation in China will be noteworthy for the society. Different scenarios have different effects on hydropower generation,of which A2 scenario (pessimistic, high emission) has the largest. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of every province are distinctly different, of which the Southwest part has the higher vulnerability than the average level while the central part lower.

Keywords: Climate change; Hydropower generation; Vulnerability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2012-04
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Related works:
Journal Article: Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model (2014)
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