When does the turning point in China's CO2 emissions occur? Results based on the Green Solow Model

Yu Hao and Yi-Ming Wei
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Yu HAO and Hao Yu

No 73, CEEP-BIT Working Papers from Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology

Abstract: In recent years, the surge in China's CO2 emissions has caused increasing international concern. In this paper, we investigate whether and when the turning point in China's CO2 emissions would occur. A simple yet powerful neoclassical Green Solow Model (GSM) is utilized herein as the main forecasting tool. To verify the capability of this framework to address China's economy, a key prediction of the GSM ¨C the convergence in per capita CO2 emissions across Chinese provinces ¨C is empirically verified. By assigning reasonable values to the GSM's key parameters, the trajectories of total CO2 emissions are projected for the three regions of China and the whole country. The forecast results show that under the benchmark scenario, China's total CO2 emissions would peak approximately in the year 2047. According to the sensitivity analysis, carbon efficiency is the most important determining factor for whether a turning point in total CO2 emissions may occur.

JEL-codes: Q47 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2014-09-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-env and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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Published in Environment and Development Economics.

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Journal Article: When does the turning point in China's CO2 emissions occur? Results based on the Green Solow model (2015)
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