A Feasible Approach to Projecting Household Demand For The Digital Ruble in Russia

Vadim Grishchenko (), Alexey Ponomarenko and Sergei Seleznev

No wps108, Bank of Russia Working Paper Series from Bank of Russia

Abstract: We estimated a model of households’ usage of alternative payment instruments (cash and bank cards) using a new dataset from a survey of Russian households. In our modelling set-up, households’ preferences are determined by the instruments’ perceived attributes and hence their choice regarding payment methods depends on the differences across instruments in these attributes. The results indicate a statistically significant sensitivity of consumer choice to the perceived attributes. We employ the estimated model to evaluate the demand for CBDC depending on its expected design and consumers’ perception of it. We discuss several illustrative projections to demonstrate the application of the tool developed. The predicted utilisation of CBDC varies considerably depending on the attributes hypothesised, although under the conservative assumptions, the projected use of CBDC in household transactions is limited.

Keywords: : Central Bank Digital Currency; Digital Ruble; payment instruments; ordered probit; banknotes; bank cards; Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E42 E47 E50 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2023-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-cis, nep-mon and nep-pay
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