Review of Methodological Specifics of Consumer Price Index Seasonal Adjustment in the Bank of Russia

Arina Sapova, Aleksey Porshakov (), Andrey Andreev () and Evgenia Shatilo ()
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Aleksey Porshakov: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation
Andrey Andreev: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation
Evgenia Shatilo: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation

No wps33, Bank of Russia Working Paper Series from Bank of Russia

Abstract: Under the inflation targeting regime, the main goal of the Bank of Russia is to maintain price stability. In order to analyse the options that the central bank can use to implement its monetary policy aimed at bringing inflation down to sustainable low levels it is necessary to understand, considering the available short-term statistical data, the dynamics of consumer prices and individual components of the seasonally adjusted consumer price index. At the same time, the seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index requires solving a number of methodological problems, one part of which is common for all economic time series with a seasonal component and the other part is determined by the specific nature of the consumer price index as an aggregate indicator. The paper suggests approaches to solving conceptual problems related to the seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index. It also describes basic principles and methods for their implementation that can lead to a significant increase in the quality of identification and interpretation of short-term meaningful variations in consumer prices that the Bank of Russia takes into account when making its monetary policy decisions.

Keywords: consumer price index; inflation; seasonality; seasonal adjustment; aggregate index; consumer price dynamics . (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C18 C43 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2018-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-knm, nep-mac and nep-tra
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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