DEMUR, a regional semi-structural model of the Ural Macroregion

Oleg Kryzhanovsky () and Alexander Zykov
Additional contact information
Oleg Kryzhanovsky: Bank of Russia, Russian Federation
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Oleg Andreevich Kryzhanovskij

No wps83, Bank of Russia Working Paper Series from Bank of Russia

Abstract: This paper offers an introduction into a new macroeconomic model of the Ural Macroregion named DEMUR (the Dynamic Equilibrium Model of the Ural Region). DEMUR is a regional semi-structural model that includes some key characteristics of the Ural economy for analysing the implications of monetary policy measures and forecasting. DEMUR is built in the logic of neo-Keynesian models with real and nominal rigidity. It also takes into account the structure of a small open economy, external (relative to the region) monetary conditions and other factors that drive changes of the Ural economy. The model is estimated by Bayesian methods based on international OECD, EAI, FRED and FAO statistical data, federal and regional statistical data by Rosstat and the Bank of Russia for 2009 Q1–2020 Q4. While describing DEMUR’s properties, we demonstrate the model’s capabilities by decomposing historical and forecast data. The model enables the analysis of changes in economic indicators on both Russian and macroregional levels in response to domestic or external macroeconomic shocks, and quantifies the macroregion’s contribution to changes in countrywide indicators, making it a valuable tool for macroeconomic analysis.

Keywords: gross regional product; forecasting models; QPM; quarterly projection models; semi-structural models; monetary policy models; inflation targeting. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C13 E30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2021-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cis and nep-dge
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cbr.ru/StaticHtml/File/130884/wp_83.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: DEMUR: A Regional Semi-Structural Model of the Ural Macroregion (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps83

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Bank of Russia Working Paper Series from Bank of Russia Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by BoR Research ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).