Un análisis de comportamiento a nivel de agente de la encuesta de expectativas de inflación del BCU

Fernando Borraz and Diego Gianelli
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Diego Gianelli: Banco Central del Uruguay

No 2010001, Documentos de trabajo from Banco Central del Uruguay

Abstract: Inflation expectations are key unobservable variables for decision-making, especially in managing monetary policy. Understand how to formulate them, if they are rational or adaptive is vital. This study answers these questions through a panel data analysis of the micro data from the inflation expectation survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay. The main findings indicate: i) a low predictive power of the analysts surveyed in the 12-month horizon; ii) a convergence of the individual forecasts to the released monthly median iii) an overweight of the inflation target ceiling and the dynamics of the inflation, and iv) a underweight of monetary policy instruments. With respect to the evidence of rationality, we find the partial use of available information and in some cases, there is a systematic bias.

Keywords: inflation expectations; rationality; forecast errors; expectativas de inflación; racionalidad; errores de pronóstico (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D85 E31 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Un análisis de comportamiento a nivel de agente de la encuesta de expectativas de inflación del BCU (2011)
Working Paper: Un Análisis de Comportamiento a Nivel de Agente de la Encuesta de Expectativas de Inflación del BCU (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bku:doctra:2010001

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