Un indicador de la evolución del PIB uruguayo en tiempo real

Helena Rodríguez ()
Additional contact information
Helena Rodríguez: Banco Central del Uruguay

No 2014009, Documentos de trabajo from Banco Central del Uruguay

Abstract: Timely forecasts and assessment of economic activity are crucial for policy making. In Uruguay, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is published on a quarterly basis with a lag of about three months. In this paper we build a dynamic factor model to compute nowcasts and short-term forecasts of quarterly GDP exploiting the information available in various activity indicators that are published on a monthly basis. The predictive ability of the model yields better performance than other benchmark models for short-term forecasts. Moreover, forecasting errors decrease as new information becomes available.

Keywords: real time forecasting; dynamic factor model; Uruguay; proyección en tiempo real; modelo de factores dinámicos; Uruguay (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/ ... 20Trabajo/9.2014.pdf First version, 2014 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bku:doctra:2014009

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Documentos de trabajo from Banco Central del Uruguay Biblioteca Especializada. Banco Central del Uruguay. Diagonal Fabini 777, Montevideo-Uruguay. CP 11100. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Biblioteca Especializada ().