News of disinflation and firms' expectations: new causal evidence
Martin Caruso Bloeck (),
Miguel Mello () and
Jorge Ponce
Additional contact information
Martin Caruso Bloeck: University of California, Berkeley
Miguel Mello: Banco Central del Uruguay
No 2022003, Documentos de trabajo from Banco Central del Uruguay
Abstract:
We causally identify how firms’ inflation and growth expectations respond to information about a comprehensive reform in the monetary policy framework by means of a randomized control trial. The reform is intended to lower inflation significantly in the coming years, making this experiment unique relative to previous ones that are carried out in stable and consolidated monetary policy frameworks. Firms treated with information about the reform lower their inflation and cost expectations by about 0.5 percentage points, with the effect being persistent sixth months after the treatment. Treated firms also expect temporarily lower GDP growth.
Keywords: Inflation expectations; economic expectations; disinflation; monetary policy communication; randomized control trial; firms' survey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2022
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-lam and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bcu.gub.uy/Estadisticas-e-Indicadores/ ... 20Trabajo/3.2022.pdf First version, 2022 (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: News of disinflation and firms’ expectations: New causal evidence (2023) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bku:doctra:2022003
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Documentos de trabajo from Banco Central del Uruguay Biblioteca Especializada. Banco Central del Uruguay. Diagonal Fabini 777, Montevideo-Uruguay. CP 11100. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Biblioteca Especializada ().