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Forecasting, Foresight and Strategic Planning for Black Swans

Konstantinos Nikolopoulos () and F. Petropoulos
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F. Petropoulos: Cardiff University Business School

No 15003, Working Papers from Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales)

Abstract: In this research essay we propose a methodological innovation through: a) advocating for the broader use of OR forecasting tools and in specific intermittent demand estimators for forecasting black and grey swans, as a simpler, faster and quite robust alternative to econometric probabilistic methods like EVT; b) demonstrating the use in such a context of a rather popular forecasting paradigm: the Naive method (forecasting short horizons) and the SBA method (foresight long horizons) through the ADIDA non-overlapping temporal aggregation method-improving framework, and c) arguing for a new way for deciding the strategic planning horizon for phenomena prone to the appearance of black and grey swans.

Keywords: Forecasting; Black Swans; Intermittent Demand; Temporal Aggregation; Forecasting Horizon (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
Date: 2015-03
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