Joint prediction bands for macroeconomic risk management

Qaisar Akram, Andrew Binning and Junior Maih

No 2016/7, Working Paper from Norges Bank

Abstract: In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty present in forecasts from multivariate time series models. Second, we suggest a new measure for assessing the plausibility of non-central point forecasts. And third, we describe how to use the density forecasts from a multivariate time series model to assess the probability of a set of future events occurring. An additional novelty of this paper is our use of a regime-switching DSGE model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint, estimated on US data, to produce the density forecasts. The tools we off er will allow practitioners to better assess and communicate joint forecast probabilities, a criticism that has been leveled at central bank communications.

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Fancharts; DSGE; Zero Lower Bound; Regime-switching; Bayesian Estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C53 C6 E1 E37 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2016-04-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-pr~, nep-mac and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2016/72016/

Related works:
Working Paper: Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bno:worpap:2016_07

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