Touristification and incumbent residents: Evidence from personal income tax records

João Pereira dos Santos, Jorge Páscoa and Susana Peralta

Portugal Stata Conference 2026 from Stata Users Group

Abstract: Touristification has emerged as a transformative yet contentious force in urban economies, creating both economic opportunities and displacement pressures. We estimate the impact of a rapid touristification boom on residential mobility and income trajectories of incumbent households in two of Europe’s most affected cities. Using administrative tax records from 2016–2019 and an instrumental-variables strategy based on proximity to tourist amenities, we show that short-term rental expansion significantly increased outmigration rates. We further document heterogeneous income effects across sources and demographic groups, identifying the populations most vulnerable to tourism-driven housing market shocks.

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boc:pcon26:10

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