Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth
Juan Antolin-Diaz,
Thomas Drechsel and
Ivan Petrella
No 587, Bank of England working papers from Bank of England
Abstract:
Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that most of this slowdown occurred prior to the Great Recession. We show how to use the model to decompose changes in long-run growth into its underlying drivers. At low frequencies, a decline in the growth rate of labour productivity appears to be behind the recent slowdown in GDP growth for both the United States and other advanced economies. When applied to real-time data, the proposed model is capable of detecting shifts in long-run growth in a timely and reliable manner.
Keywords: Long-run growth; business cycles; productivity; dynamic factor models; real-time data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E01 E23 E32 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 102 pages
Date: 2016-04-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)
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https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/ ... C9553534C6CA5E3CFD61 Full text (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth (2017)
Working Paper: Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth (2017)
Working Paper: Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth (2016)
Working Paper: Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boe:boeewp:0587
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