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Foreign booms, domestic busts: the global dimension of banking crises

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (), Fernando Eguren-Martin () and Gregory Thwaites ()
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Fernando Eguren-Martin: Bank of England, Postal: Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Fernando Eguren Martin

No 644, Bank of England working papers from Bank of England

Abstract: This paper provides novel empirical evidence showing that foreign financial developments are a powerful predictor of domestic banking crises. Using a new data set for 38 advanced and emerging economies over 1970–2011, we show that credit growth in the rest of the world has a large positive effect on the probability of banking crises taking place at home, even when controlling for domestic credit growth. Our results suggest that this effect is larger for financially open economies, and is consistent with transmission via cross-border capital flows and market sentiment. Direct contagion from foreign crises plays an important role, but does not account for the whole effect.

Keywords: Financial crises; global credit cycle; banking; financial stability; sentiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E44 E52 G01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 49 pages
Date: 2017-02-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-fdg, nep-mac and nep-opm
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Related works:
Journal Article: Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Foreign Booms, Domestic Busts: The Global Dimension of Banking Crises (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises (2017) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boe:boeewp:0644

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