Brexit and uncertainty: insights from the Decision Maker Panel

Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen (), Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites and Garry Young
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Scarlet Chen: Stanford University

No 780, Bank of England working papers from Bank of England

Abstract: The UK’s decision to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum created substantial uncertainty for UK businesses. The nature of this uncertainty is different from that of a typical uncertainty shock because of its length, breadth and political complexity. Consequently, a new firm-level survey, the Decision Maker Panel (DMP), was created to investigate this, finding three key results. First, Brexit was reported to be one of the top three sources of uncertainty for around 40% of UK businesses in the two years after the vote in June 2016 referendum. This proportion increased further in Autumn 2018. Hence, Brexit provided both a major and persistent uncertainty shock. Second, uncertainty has been higher in industries that are more dependent on trade with the EU and on EU migrant labour. Third, the uncertainties around Brexit have been primarily about the impact on businesses over the longer term rather than shorter term, including uncertainty about the timing of any transition arrangements and around the nature of Brexit.

Keywords: Business surveys; Brexit; companies; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D80 E66 G18 H32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2019-02-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boe:boeewp:0780

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