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Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy

Fernando Eguren-Martin (), Cian O'Neill (), Andrej Sokol () and Lukas von dem Berge
Additional contact information
Fernando Eguren-Martin: Bank of England, Postal: Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH
Cian O'Neill: Bank of England, Postal: Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Fernando Eguren Martin

No 881, Bank of England working papers from Bank of England

Abstract: We characterise the probability distribution of capital flows for a panel of emerging market economies conditional on information contained in financial asset prices, with a focus on ‘tail’ events. Our framework, based on the quantile regression methodology, allows for a separate role of push and pull-type factors, and offers insights into the term-structure of these effects. We find that both push and pull factors have heterogeneous effects across the distribution of capital flows, with the strongest reactions in the left tail. Also, the effect of changes in pull factors is more persistent than that of push factors. Finally, we explore the role of policy, and find that macroprudential and capital flow management measures are associated with changes in the distribution of capital flows.

Keywords: Capital flows; sudden stops; capital flight; retrenchment; capital flow surges; push versus pull; capital controls; macroprudential policy; financial conditions indices; quantile regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F32 F34 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2020-08-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-mon and nep-rmg
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Working Paper: Capital flows-at-risk: push, pull and the role of policy (2021) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boe:boeewp:0881

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