How Cyclical is the PSBR?

Joanna Paisley and Chris Salmon

Bank of England working papers from Bank of England

Abstract: This paper examines the methodology of cyclical adjustment of fiscal balances. The crucial assumption underlying any estimates of the cyclically-adjusted balance (CAB) is found to be the measure of the output gap. Estimates for the UK are presented, suggesting that when the economy returns to trend the PSBR should fall by between 3% to 4.5% of GDP from its position at the end of 1992.

Date: 1995-05
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:boe:boeewp:34

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