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Tracking Chinese CPI inflation in real time

Michael Funke, Aaron Mehrotra and Hao Yu

No 35/2011, BOFIT Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition

Abstract: With recovery from the global financial crisis in 2009 and 2010, inflation emerged as a major concern for many central banks in emerging Asia. We use data observed at mixed frequencies to estimate the movement of Chinese headline inflation within the framework of a state-space model, and then take the estimated indicator to nowcast Chinese CPI inflation. The importance of forward-looking and high-frequency variables in tracking inflation dynamics is highlighted and the policy implications discussed. Keywords: Nowcasting, CPI inflation cycle, mixed-frequency modelling, dynamic factor model, China. JEL classification: C53, E31, E37

JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-12-22
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Published in Published in Empirical Economics, Volume 48, Issue 4, June 2015: 1619-1641

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