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Real-time warning signs of emerging and collapsing Chinese house price bubbles

Xi Chen and Michael Funke

No 27/2012, BOFIT Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition

Abstract: The recent increase in Chinese house prices has led to concerns that China is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Chinese house price cycles. Overall, we find that except for 2009-2010 actual house prices are not significantly disconnected from fundamentals. Thus, the evidence for speculative house price bubbles in China is in general weak. Keywords: house prices, China, speculative bubbles, recursive unit root tests JEL-Classification: C15, G01, G12, R31

JEL-codes: C15 G01 G12 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-11-13
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Published in Published in The National Institute Economic Review, February 2013, 223 (1), pp. 39-48

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Journal Article: Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles (2013) Downloads
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