The information content in the offshore Renminbi foreign-exchange option market: Analytics and implied USD/CNH densities
Julius Loermann and
Andrew Tsang ()
No 15/2017, BOFIT Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition
In line with the deepening of the derivative foreign-exchange market in Hong Kong, we recover risk-neutral probability densities for future US dollar/offshore renminbi exchange rates as implied by exchange rate option prices. The risk-neutral densities (RND) approach is shown to be useful in analyzing market sentiment and risk aversion in the renminbi market. We include a forecasting exercise that confirms market participants were able to forecast the shape of the actual densities correctly for short horizons, even if their exact location could not be determined.
JEL-codes: C53 F31 F37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bof:bofitp:2017_015
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in BOFIT Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition Bank of Finland, BOFIT, P.O. Box 160, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Minna Nyman ().