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The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro-level assessment

Michael Funke, Rongrong Sun () and Linxu Zhu

No 12/2018, BOFIT Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition

Abstract: Household borrowing in China has increased considerably in recent years, raising concerns about the household sector’s vulnerability and implications for the stability of the financial system. We construct a number of granular debt-burden indicators at the level of individual Chinese households and calculate the share of households that are financially vulnerable using the three available waves (2011, 2013 and 2015) of China’s Household Finance Survey. Overall loan-to-value (LTV) ratios appear safe and sound at first glance, but closer scrutiny reveals that Chinese households in the lowest income quintile face high vulnerability and struggle to meet their debt commitments. Our stress tests suggest that Chinese households in higher quintiles, despite the huge increase in house-hold indebtedness, are not particularly vulnerable to declining incomes or falling house prices.

JEL-codes: D10 D14 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna and nep-tra
Date: 2018-05-07
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