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The enduring link between demography and inflation

John Juselius and Elod Takats

No 8/2018, Research Discussion Papers from Bank of Finland

Abstract: Demographic shifts, such as population ageing, have been suggested as possible explanations for the recent decade-long spell of low inflation. We identify age structure effects on inflation from cross-country variation in a panel of 22 countries from 1870 to 2016 that includes standard monetary factors. We document a robust relationship that is in line with the lifecycle hypothesis: a larger share of dependent population is inflationary, whereas a larger share of working age population is disinflationary. This relationship accounts for the bulk of trend inflation, for instance, about 7 percentage points of US disinflation since the 1980s. It predicts rising inflation over the coming decades.

JEL-codes: E31 E52 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-dem, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2018-04-06
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