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Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports

George Hondroyiannis (), P.A.V.B. Swamy, George Tavlas () and Michael Ulan
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P.A.V.B. Swamy: US Bureau of Labour Statistics
Michael Ulan: Department of State

No 28, Working Papers from Bank of Greece

Abstract: The relationship between exchange-rate volatility and aggregate export volumes for 12 industrial economies is examined using a model that includes real export earnings of oil-producing economies as a determinant of industrial-country export volumes. A supposition underlying the model is that, given their levels of economic development, oil-exporters’ income elasticities of demand for industrial-country exports might differ from those of industrial countries. Five estimation techniques, including a generalized method of moments (GMM) and random coefficient (RC) estimation, are employed on panel data covering the estimation period 1977:1-2003:4 using three measures of volatility. In contrast to recent studies employing panel data, we do not find a single instance in which volatility has a negative and significant impact on trade.

Keywords: Exchange-rate volatility; Trade; Random-coefficient estimation; Generalized method of moments; Panel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 F3 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2005-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-int
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Journal Article: Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports (2008) Downloads
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