Consumer price stickiness in the euro area during an inflation surge

Erwan Gautier, Cristina Conflitti, Daniel Enderle, Ludmila Fadejeva, Alex Grimaud, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Valentin Jouvanceau, Jan-Oliver Menz, Alari Paulus, Pavlos Petroulas, Pau Roldan-Blanco and Elisabeth Wieland
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Erwan Gautier: Banque de France and Université Paris-Dauphine
Cristina Conflitti: Banca d'Italia
Daniel Enderle: Oesterreichische Nationalbank and Vienna University of Economics and Business
Ludmila Fadejeva: Latvijas Banka
Alex Grimaud: Oesterreichische Nationalbank and TU Wien
Eduardo Gutiérrez: Banco de España
Valentin Jouvanceau: ECB and Lietuvos Bankas
Jan-Oliver Menz: Deutsche Bundesbank
Alari Paulus: Eesti Pank
Pavlos Petroulas: Bank of Greece
Pau Roldan-Blanco: Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona School of Economics and CEPR
Elisabeth Wieland: ECB and Deutsche Bundesbank

No 357, Working Papers from Bank of Greece

Abstract: We use CPI micro data for nine euro area countries to document new evidence on consumer price stickiness in the euro area during the 2021-2024 inflation cycle. In 2022, the monthly frequency of price changes reached 12\%, compared with an average of 8 before falling quickly in 2023 and more slowly in 2024, ending close to its pre-pandemic level. The decline in the frequency of price changes was faster for food and non-energy industrial goods (NEIG) than for services, where frequencies remained elevated in 2024. The overall frequency rose mainly because there were more price increases, while the magnitude of the average size of the price increases or decreases changed only marginally during the surge. Products with a larger imported-energy cost share responded more strongly, and hazard-rate evidence shows that the probability of price adjustments increases with the gap between actual and optimal prices, consistent with state-dependent pricing and a steepening of the Phillips curve. To illustrate the implications of this state dependence, a macro model suggests that peak inflation would have been almost 1 percentage point lower if the frequency had not responded to the inflation surge.

Keywords: Price rigidity; euro area; inflation surge; micro price data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 F33 L11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 77
Date: 2026-02
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