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A Portofolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment

Stephen Hall (), George Hondroyiannis (), P.A.V.B. Swamy and George Tavlas ()
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P.A.V.B. Swamy: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

No 61, Working Papers from Bank of Greece

Abstract: As part of its monetary policy strategy, the European Central Bank has formulated a reference value for M3 growth. A pre-requisite for the use of a reference value for M3 growth is the existence of a stable demand function for that aggregate. However, a large empirical literature has emerged showing that, beginning in 2001, essentially all euro area M3 demand functions have exhibited instability. This paper considers euroarea money demand in the context of the portfolio-balance framework. Our basic premise is that there is a stable demand-for-money function but that the models that have been used until now to estimate euro area money-demand are not well-specified because they do not include a measure of wealth. Using two empirical methodologies - - a co-integrated vector equilibrium correction (VEC) approach and a time-varying coefficient (TVC) approach - - we find that a demand-for-money function that includes wealth is stable. The upshot of our findings is that M3 behaviour continues to provide useful information about medium-term developments on inflation.

Keywords: Money demand; VEC, time varying coefficient estimation; Euro area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C20 E41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2007-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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Working Paper: A Portfolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment (2008) Downloads
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