Has Consumer Price Index Stopped Declining? -- The background against the first increase in five and a half years --

Makoto Minegishi
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Makoto Minegishi: Bank of Japan

Bank of Japan Review Series from Bank of Japan

Abstract: The Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding fresh food, had been declining at around 0.8 percent on a year-on-year basis until early 2003. However, the rate of decline diminished steadily thereafter. Recently, in October, it marked an increase of 0.1 percent for the first time in five and a half years (the last increase was in April 1998). This paper argues that the movements in the recent CPI are largely affected by temporary factors and hence, in its underlying trend, the CPI is likely to continue its gradual decline.

Date: 2003-12
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